Have crude oil prices really bottomed? It is a hard call. A week or so ago the same folks who insisted WTI crude oil would never fall below $75, were convinced it would continue to slide. What happened was a pretty dramatic reversal that saw crude rally more than 20% in three days. The driver was a late day rally last Friday — the last trading day of January — that pushed crude back above a 17-year trendline dating back to December 1998 (see chart).
That trendline was broken on a daily and weekly close basis the week prior and sits roughly at $46.75. The significance of the technical level provided confidence for buyers to enter the market, many of whom seemed to be looking for a sign. The move had the feel and drama of a bottom, so perhaps it is though typically the market is not so accommodating. A technical contributor often likes to write, “They don’t ring the bell at market tops and bottoms.” This time the market kind of did. Or perhaps there is more dram to follow. Here is what our experts think.
We asked traders: Did crude oil hit a bottom at $43.58 on Jan. 29? What do you expect the range to be for the rest of the year?