This was another constructive session for the Euro on disappointing U.S. data and drama in Washington. First, Core CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2% MoM and 1.8% YoY, however, this was slower than January and December.
Yesterday was a tough session for market bulls, and we took our licks. CPI data was in line with expectations and this did pave the road higher for equity markets; the S&P traded to a new swing high of 2807.25 and the Nasdaq extended to a new record. Not so fast though, the White House took another dramatic turn with the release of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Equity markets are coming out of a mixed session sandwiched in between critical economic indicators; while the E-mini S&P 500 was unchanged yesterday, the Nasdaq gained 0.5% and the Dow lost 0.5%. Gold surprisingly lost ground overnight, yesterday’s session should have been constructive enough to keep the sellers at bay through CPI data at 7:30 a.m. Central.
The Nasdaq 100 has been lurking within 2% of its all-time high since late February and Friday’s monster gain of 1.8% finally achieved the inevitable.February’s Consumer Price Index data is due out Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. Central. The Core read that excludes food and energy is the most closely watched data point. Industrial Production, Fixed Asset investment and Retail Sales are due out of China on TuesdayEvening.
As we are heading towards the weekend, the dollar is beginning to come back to life again. A lot of investors and analysts were left scratching their heads after Wednesday’s dramatic moves in the markets as dollar reversed earlier gains to head lower despite the release of stronger-than-expected CPI inflation data. The greenback extended its losses on Thursday thanks to momentum selling, before bouncing back today.
The 10-year treasury yield hit a high of 2.944 early yesterday and has backed off since. On the flip side, we have a rare major four-star support in the 10-year treasury futures at 119’20-120’00 and yesterday’s low was 120’01 before bouncing. Another session of Dollar weakness yesterday extended overnight to put the Dollar Index at the lowest level since December 2014.
The biggest single event of the week is the release of U.S Consumer Price Index data at 7:30 am CT Wednesday. The Core CPI read, which excludes food and energy, may not be known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge but it is arguably the most important. December’s read in January was a bright spot with a month over month increase of 0.3%.