Once again, the market is taking it personally. How many times have come here in the past year and a half playing Lord Rothschild to warn you we are dealing with a similar market from the late 30’s? What happened was I’ve been talking about it a lot longer but Rothschild went public so it gave the rest of us who are awake a lot of credibility. Still, the market went higher.
The S&P 500 is painting too many short side indicators near here to ignore the idea of a weeklys options short call spread 2855/2850 strikes, using under $500.00. The market internals collapsed at lunch, while the indices formed sell-signal candlesticks on many time frames. Prices are beyond my projected highs of the week, and sideways pivots for the month and week are present.
Time window season came and went. Then there was Facebook, which got clobbered just as markets hit 618 days off the February 2016 bottom. This was one of the tougher windows the market has encountered this century. There was plenty of reason to believe the 610 would sustain and in certain instances, it has. But for the most part, markets have been higher than they were in the middle of July.
Last week at this time we were working on a high that hit at the beginning of the window and, indeed, patterns started to roll over. NFLX had a terrible earnings report and got crushed in the aftermarket last Monday night. That’s fair enough. But on Tuesday it put in what is called a bullish belt hold. That’s where it gaps down but the end of the gap turns out to be the low for the day. Lots of stocks put in green bars that day. In terms of psychology, bears had to wonder if they’d ever get a break.
Have we reached the zero hour? Time windows don’t have to validate although much of the time they do. I can tell you one thing, we have a very interesting news event at day 610 off the February 2016 bottom. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin are meeting as I’m writing this. In any era, when the two superpowers meet face to face it’s a big deal. Given everything, we’ve been through the past couple of years its an even bigger deal.
Nasdaq (NDAQ) announced on July 2 that it will launch a suite of interest rate products— DV01 U.S. Treasury Futures — on the Nasdaq Futures Exchange (NFX) by later this month pending regulatory approval.
This is supposed to be a seasonally bullish period. From the end of quarter window dressing through the July 4 holiday the stock market tilts to the bullish side; not always or every year but generally speaking. Why the markets are open on July 4 is another story, but consider the first and last hour without the midday doldrums.
As we mentioned last month, despite May’s reputation as being a time to sell, other months — June, August and September, in particular — historically produce much worse equity market performance. June is a particularly poor performer, averaging negative performance in both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.
Each month in our calendar section we provide an outlook on how the major equity indexes behave in that particular month along with the dates of the important economic reports released that month. We try and dig a little deeper in examining monthly performance to extract trends.