You can talk all you want about rising U.S. oil production, but the fact is that U.S. crude oil supply is below average. The Energy Information Agency, in its weekly report, said that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels to 428.3 million barrels, which the EIA says are the lower half of the average range for this time of year. This is happening even as U.S. oil production reportedly increased to 10.047 million barrels of oil a day.
Quant Cycles (formerly called the Cycle Projection Oscillator) is a technical tool that uses proprietary statistical techniques and complex algorithms to filter multiple cycles from historical data, combines them to obtain cyclical information from price data and then gives a graphical representation of their productive behavior. Other proprietary frequency domain techniques then are employed to obtain the cycles embedded in the price.
Springtime seasonal in crude oil is being fed by a multitude of factors. Record gasoline demand, falling Venezuelan production, rising tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world is underpinning oil and oil product prices today. President Donald Trump is meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the market is assuming that means that the United States and Saudi Arabia will take a tougher stance against Iran.
March madness started early in crude oil as prices fell on relatively light volume and focused on bearish news about ignoring bullish news at its own peril. Traders sold oil off on a report that showed an increase in supply in Cushing, Okla., but it is about time. The Nymex Storage hub has seen supply fall at a record pace in recent weeks, and seeing that we are deep into refinery maintenance we should start to see the supply recover.
It’s "sunshine on the shoulder" season as U.S. refineries slow runs to 87.8% of capacity, running just 15.9 million barrels, the lowest level of the year as seasonal maintenance flips into high gear. The trade seemed disappointed that the overall 3-million-barrel build in crude oil supply was higher than expected. That is what should you expect when seasonal maintenance is happening.
From glut to shortages. During downturns in major commodity markets, there is a tendency to get all doomy and gloomy about the future and get locked into a lower than longer mentality. That kind of short-term thinking has engineered a major bottom in petroleum, and now that type of thinking may have an on impact natural gas.
Crude oil prices are soaring back after getting smashed on last week’s stock market correction. Of course, all the selling in stocks and oil are not about what is happening now but what may or may not happen in the future.
Crude oil prices are shaking off the stock market turmoil and now focusing on a surprise drop in weekly supply, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). Yet, with the rebound in stocks and a reduction in fear and turmoil, why wasn’t oil higher? Well, perhaps because of a report from the EIA that will rock the world as we know it.
War is over if you want it to be, President Donald Trump said in his State of the Union address on Jan. 30, where he once again declared, “We have ended the war on American Energy and we have ended the war on beautiful clean coal. We are now an exporter of energy to the world, as well as stating that the era of U.S. economics surrender is over.”